In a carefully worded statement released February 18, the Postal Service announced that Postmaster General Louis DeJoy “has notified the Postal Service Board of Governors that it is time for them to begin the process of identifying his successor.”No date was provided either for when the governors plan to have DeJoy’s replacement selected or for when DeJoy planned to leave.

In the agency’s lengthy press release, DeJoy was quoted as confident that his policies would be continued by the senior staff he’s put in place.DeJoy’s official comment included predictable tributes to his senior leadership and his own accomplishments, but offered no specific explanation for his decision.

Why now?

It’s not unusual for a PMG to leave after five years; there have been 14 postmasters general since the USPS was established in 1971, each serving an average of 4½ years.

However, from appearances, DeJoy hadn’t been hinting he was planning to leave.Neither his typically brash self-confidence nor his aggressive defense of his 10-Year Plan seemed diminished, as his published comments during a recent Board of Governors meeting would indicate.

The story behind his decision may have to await the publication of his memoirs, but speculation following the announcement centered around a handful of possible explanations:

•He’s fed up.

•He got the word.

•He’s declaring success.

•He’s using a lifeline.

•He knew what was coming.

•Some combination of the above.

As noted, we may never know which, if any, speculative factors may have contributed to his decision.

What his successor does, however, will be much more impactful.Will implementation of The Plan continue unaltered?Will pricing strategies still feature “judicious” semi-annual rate increases?Will service remain impaired by “optimized” collections, less air transportation, and a fixation on full trucks?Will efforts to become a major package shipper continue and, more importantly, will greater effort be placed on retaining – or growing – hard-copy mail?

For commercial mail producers and their ratepaying clients, stabilizing postage rates and improving service (in reality, not by cleverly changing the measurement rules) will remain of primary importance – regardless of who’s the PMG.

Who’s next?

Given subsequent developments, things could go one of two ways: according to the normal process, or along an extraordinary and unprecedented course.

Considering the normal process first, only the governors can appoint a postmaster general.Their typical steps include the formation of a search committee, the identification and interviewing of candidates, and ultimately the selection of the appointee.The governors can – and previously have – engaged executive search professionals to do initial screening.

Regardless, how candidates are identified is nebulous, and nothing is made public.Moreover, the “headhunters” and the governors’ search committee aren’t the only channels through which names can come into consideration.

Though the administration cannot directly appoint a PMG, it can nominate four governors (for three current vacancies and to replace one serving his “grace” year), and that – outside of the search process – it can supply names of desirable, politically aligned individuals.Such a scenario is possible even with the current three vacant governor seats: three of the remaining governors are aligned politically with the administration.

Of course, that assumes it will be the governors who do the choosing.The second possible way the next postal leadership could be installed would be through executive action by the White House.

Given the resurgent interest in the privatization of government functions, as well as the politically popular idea of eliminating government jobs, the opportunity to outsource transportation and mail processing functions could be pursued; the agency’s 640,000 unionized workers are an attractive target.Similarly, efforts could be made to reduce the retail footprint, eliminate delivery days, and trim employee benefits.With a supportive Congress, many changes are possible.

A timely example was revealed in a February 20 article in The Washington Post in which reporter Jacob Bogage indicated the administration is seeking to take control of the Postal Service.

According to the report, the president “is expected to issue an executive order as soon as this week to fire the members of the Postal Service’s governing board and place the agency under the control of the Commerce Department,” according to “six people familiar with the plans, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.”

Sources also told Bogage that the governors retained outside counsel to sue the White House if the president were to remove them or attempt to alter the agency’s independent status.

Representatives for the administration and the Postal Service did not immediately respond to requests for comment.Reportedly, the plan was known to PMG DeJoy but not to his inner circle of top executives, and certainly not to other managers and staff at USPS HQ.

However, despite what the “six people” told the Post, the next day the White House denied there was an executive order in the works to take over the Postal Service.

Regardless, it appears ratepayers and commercial mail producers – as well as the USPS and its employees – will have more to deal with over the coming months than just postage rates, and the tea leaves have become very unsettled.

Despite the president’s ability to issue executive orders, the legality of them can be challenged.In the case of the USPS, there are fundamental administrative structures, operating processes, and service responsibilities defined in statute, so sweeping them away with the stroke of a pen may not work – and even with a friendly Congress legislative changes can take time.

What’s not defined in, or protected by, statute is another matter.Anticipated actions – including a price change filing, continued revisions to the processing network, planned changes to evening mail collection and service standards, and changes to business rules – can be accelerated, amended, or halted.Similarly, the insourcing of contracted transportation, the structure and content of labor agreements, and efforts to build a competitive package business are exposed to possible redirection by whomever may be the next custodians of the USPS.

Until we know more certainly who will be in charge, it will be impossible to form a reliable picture of what might be done.So, regardless of what can be speculated now, there surely will be more ahead, and what will result is anyone’s guess; we’ll know soon enough.

Leo Raymond is Owner and Managing Director, Mailers Hub.