The US economy is facing significant headwinds, and the effects are being felt far beyond spending habits or business investment. Bubbling away under the surface is a growing problem facing the supply chain. Where it’s been well documented that downturns in the economy have coincided with higher rates of theft and fraud, this has typically been centred around the banking and financial services vertical, yet now we are seeing rising rates of fraud around large shipments of consumer goods and household items. Rather than stealing one-off, expensive goods, in a quantity over quality approach, thieves are targeting leggings, sodas, household essentials, and other low-cost items that can be stolen in bulk and quickly resold to smaller retailers or shipped abroad to be purchased by unknowing consumers.
Suppliers won’t be brought down from just a few low value items going missing, however the rate of theft frequency raises concerns as these goods become the new currency of fraud during periods of economic strain. Fake IDs are often central to the sophisticated schemes that result in lost cargo.
An Industry Shift
The fact that bad actors within supply chains are moving their focus on volume items to sell on in bulk, rather than one-off pay days from high-value items highlights the crucial truth that cargo fraud is not simply about the loss of products in transit, but about the destabilization of trust across supply chains.
When everyday goods such as toiletries, clothing and food goods are stolen on their way to a destination, there is a knock-on effect on inventory planning, pricing structures, and ultimately brand reputation. For businesses, this means grappling with unexpected gaps in stock and explaining to partners and consumers why essentials are missing from shelves. For customers, it introduces uncertainty, frustration, and can result in retailers inflating prices in an attempt to recover costs, creating a vicious and dangerous cycle for the economy.
What makes the current wave of cargo crime even more concerning is the sophistication with which thefts are carried out. Far from a spontaneous decision to steal goods in transit, today’s fraudsters rarely rely on brute force or opportunistic theft. Instead, they exploit loopholes in digital systems, using fake paperwork and identities to gain access to shipments. In most cases, criminals no longer need to force their way into warehouses or hijack trucks, what they do instead is deceitfully bypass the gatekeepers of logistics networks and turn reliance on trust and efficiency into a vulnerability.
ID Fraud at the Heart of Cargo Theft
The deceit shown by bad actors within the industry largely stems from use of false to gain unauthorised access to goods. Data from over 350,000 scans of drivers for logistics and transportation companies in 2025 alone has revealed that alarmingly, 2.36% of identity documents were fake or suspicious, with a further 0.83% using expired. Whilst this may seem like a menial figure at the face of it, it’s a significantly higher percentage of fake identities than is seen in bars and nightclubs - where you’d expect to see greater fake ID usage - which peaks at 2% each year, particularly around holiday season.
This calls into question the control that organizations in the industry have over who is in control of goods moving from A to B in the supply chain. Each percentage point represents thousands of opportunities for unauthorized individuals to take control of vehicles, shipments, and ultimately, the trust placed in supply chains. When we consider that based off US Bureau of Labour Statistics estimates that around 6.6 million people were employed in transportation and warehousing in 2024, if 3.19% are operating with fake or expired identities, that equates to over 210,000 unverified employees, enough to fill the Michigan Stadium two times over.
The True Consequences of Cargo Theft
The financial and economic impact of cargo theft has always been obvious, yet what is often overlooked is the human impact that comes with it.
Thefts don’t just come from employees and can be the result of those not directly involved in the industry taking advantage of slack physical security or goods left unattended. As the first line of defence, this exposes frontline logistics staff to greater risk so when criminals exploit weak identity checks, it is these individuals who face the stress, confusion, and potential danger of fraudulent interactions. Protecting cargo, therefore, cannot be separated from protecting the people responsible for moving it.
Modern technology plays a pivotal role in enhancing ID verification capabilities. Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms can analyze vast datasets to detect fake IDs, flag suspicious patterns, and identify inconsistencies in real time. These systems offer a sophisticated layer of security, making it more difficult for fraudsters to exploit existing loopholes in supply chain processes.
Integrating ID verification systems with authoritative databases, such as those shared by the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV), further bolsters security. This ensures real-time validation of driver credentials, eliminating the risk posed by expired or fraudulent IDs and providing a reliable safeguard against unauthorized access. For those continuing to commit theft, knowing their identity allows effective recovery to take place.
The Link Between the Economy and Theft
Economic downturns create the perfect conditions for these types of crimes to flourish. As margins shrink and consumer demand shifts, the black market for cheaper everyday goods grows. Much like supply and demand in any industry, thieves and fraudsters understand this dynamic and exploit it by moving stolen products into secondary markets where retailers, pressed by cost pressures, are more willing to overlook questionable supply sources. What may look like petty theft in the form of a truckload of household cleaning products is part of a much larger pattern of organized fraud that thrives in moments of instability.
For businesses operating in this environment, resilience depends on acknowledging that the rate of cargo theft that occurs during times of economic hardship are not anomaly, but a recurring risk likely to continue.
It is a tangible issue that touches businesses, employees, and consumers alike. Addressing it requires a shift in mindset, from reacting to losses after the fact to anticipating and preventing them before they occur. By doing so, the industry can stay ahead of criminals who are becoming more resourceful and ensure that supply chains remain not only efficient, but secure.
Jimmy Roussel is the COO of IDScan.net.
